Lula Extends Lead Over Bolsonaro 6 Days Before Brazil Vote
Polls by Quaest and Nexus show the incumbent gaining ground ahead of the first-round vote on Oct. 4. Under Brazilian election law, if no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes, the top two finishers will meet in a second-round runoff on Oct. 25.
The Quaest survey, commissioned by O Globo and TV Globo, puts Lula at 39% of voting intentions against 34% for Bolsonaro. That expands the president's lead from four points last week.
Other polling points to a far tighter race. A survey by Futura/100% Cidades has Lula at 38.3% and Bolsonaro just behind at 37.7%, well within the margin of error.
Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old lawyer and senator, was chosen as the conservative candidate by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup d'état after narrowly losing to Lula in the 2022 election.
Flavio Bolsonaro entered politics young, becoming a Rio de Janeiro state deputy at 21 and a federal senator at 37. He kept a relatively low national profile, however, until his father endorsed him.
His campaign now faces scrutiny after revelations that he is under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering linked to a biographical film about his father. The film was partly financed by a banker who was arrested for fraud.
Presenting himself as an international conservative, Flavio has highlighted his foreign alliances, boasting of a private meeting earlier this year with US President Donald Trump at the White House.
The stakes of the vote in Latin America's largest country are high, both geopolitically and economically. An agricultural powerhouse rich in natural resources, Brazil holds key rare earth element reserves, vital freshwater supplies and substantial offshore oil fields.
The race also reflects a shifting political landscape across the region. Flavio Bolsonaro embodies a surging conservative wave in a region where governments in Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador and Colombia have grown increasingly aligned with Trump's agenda.
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