Ready-to-drink gains as beer and soda lose share across nine beverage markets

eFinancialModels’ nine-country beverage studies project a structural shift through 2031 as consumers spend less on full-sugar soda and full-strength beer and more on ready-to-drink, bottled water and functional drinks. The base cases show the trend in Germany, the U.S., Australia, China, Japan and other markets, giving operators a scenario-based map for where demand is moving.

Why it matters: - The studies point to a multi-market demand shift that affects production, packaging and investment plans across the beverage sector. - eFinancialModels frames the change as structural, not cyclical, which means operators may need to reallocate capital toward RTD, water and lower-sugar products rather than wait for a rebound in legacy categories. - The base cases suggest volume is not disappearing; it is moving into categories that match moderation, convenience and health preferences.

What happened: - eFinancialModels modeled nine national beverage markets through 2031 under bear, base and bull scenarios. - The studies found the same consumer pattern across markets: spending moves out of full-sugar soda and full-strength beer and into ready-to-drink, or RTD. - Germany’s base case shows beer consumption per adult falling from 105 litres a year in 2015 to about 76 litres by 2031. - Germany’s RTD per adult rises from about 1.5 litres to 8 litres in the base case, while RTD retail value climbs from EUR 1.0 billion to EUR 2.2 billion. - The U.S. base case puts RTD at USD 22.0 billion. - Australia’s RTD spirits grow from AUD 4.5 billion to AUD 7.7 billion. - China’s RTD tea rises from USD 28 billion to USD 38 billion. - Japan’s RTD tea reaches 1.42 million kilolitres.

The details: - The full series covers Germany, France, the United States, Mexico, Brazil, China, Japan, Nigeria and Australia. - Each study uses the same three-scenario framework, which the release says makes it easier to compare market behavior across regions. - The studies assign roughly 55% to 60% probability to the base case, making the models a planning range rather than a single-point forecast. - In Germany, total beer eases from 78.0 million hectolitres to 70.8 million hectolitres in the base case. - In Germany, alcohol-free beer rises from 4.7% to 14.2% of the beer market. - In the U.S., bottled water reaches 18.5 billion gallons in the base case, ahead of carbonated soft drinks at 11.0 billion gallons. - In Mexico, soft drink volumes decline in every scenario, from 20.2 billion litres to 17.5 billion litres in the base case. - The studies link Mexico’s decline to the 2026 IEPS reform, which doubled the sugary-drink levy to MXN 3.08 per litre. - The full nine-country beverage studies and scenario financial model templates are available in the eFinancialModels Market Studies library.

Between the lines: - The cross-market pattern suggests the same consumer forces are showing up in different countries, not isolated local anomalies. - The release argues that pricing, taxation and moderation are redirecting demand rather than shrinking it outright. - For beverage makers, the important question is less whether demand changes and more which categories capture the shifted spend. - The scenario approach gives operators a way to compare upside and downside before committing to capacity.

What's next: - Beverage companies can use the studies to test production-line, portfolio and packaging decisions against bear, base and bull outcomes through 2031. - The market library gives operators a benchmark for where growth is concentrated and where legacy categories may keep losing share. - The release points to continued gains for RTD, bottled water, functional drinks and alcohol-free beer as moderation trends persist.

The bottom line: - Across nine markets, the studies show beverage demand rotating toward convenience and lower-sugar formats, with RTD emerging as one of the clearest winners.